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Alberto - Hurricane


lisar wrote: Well Alberto is now a hurricane. Joy what fun for me. I live in Jacksonville. So it will go just to left of me but I am already getting the rain and light, light winds from it. Anyone living closer to where its gona hit STAY SAFE.

C&K*s Mommie replied: I was awaiting the update for it to become hurricane status... thanks for posting it, I clicked the news off a little while ago.

The end of the dry weather for some of the South Floridians, maybe those in the South can send some of that rain up this way in NW Florida, we need it.


BAC'sMom replied: Oh crap! ohmy.gif And it's only June...we have a long season to go. I'll keep you in my thoughts and prayers.

lisar replied:
Yea we needed the rain thats for sure. And from what I can tell you will get some of it also.

go to this site
www.noaa.com
its the best site for hurricance info. I love it.

C&K*s Mommie replied:

Thanks! I checked it out. Good site. thumb.gif

You are right, we will get some. I have to be thankful for that. smile.gif

AlexsPajamaMama replied: Stay safe Floridians! hug.gif

luvmykids replied: hug.gif Hope it passes all of you by and does minimal damage if it does hit, stay safe and KUP.

luvmykids replied:
I didn't realize you live in Jacksonville, my grandma is from there and some of my best childhood memories are there! My great grandma had this plantation type house on the St John and I would swing on vines and we'd catch shrimp from the dock. Great memories! wub.gif

holley79 replied: I know this is going to sound horrible but I would love for Alberto to come here. We are in dire need of the rain. rolleyes.gif

~~*Missi*~~ replied: Wow the season has begun .....Stay safe all near and around this and ALL those to come...
I watched a special the other night at the gym (boring i know it was that or sports) that this season is going to be worse then the previous season....
My thoughts and prayers are with all you! Not to mention it showed the eastern coast getting hit pretty hard with hurricanes....


"The Season Ahead


Experts say the 2006 season could be another very active one. The latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) calls for 13-16 total storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). " from the weather channel.com

C&K*s Mommie replied: my quote from above:

funny that we were thinking the same thing! laugh.gif I was hoping too, the other day, when I first heard about it, that it would swing a little more towards the north so that we could get the rain, too. blush.gif

holley79 replied: We need it so bad. Our yards are so parched. The only problem with them swinging up this way is they spend too much time over that warm water and strengthen.

lisar replied:
We take the boat and the jet skis out on that river. I had an appartment on the river when I was single and no kids. I loved it.

MomToJade&Jordan replied: I have been saying all day that I don't mind this at all. We really did need the rain. Plus the strom formed in a part of the gulf that is normal for this time of year. I did a search and apparently in 1968 a storm formed on June 1st.

kit_kats_mom replied: I'm in Tampa. No biggie really..pretty far inland so rain is our only worry. Our pond is full now and it was almost dry yesterday. Hope this doesn't mean the gator will come back. ohmy.gif Oh, and I hope that it isn't too noisy tonight and that the kids sleep right though it. snooze.gif DH said that the local news is predicting 50 mph winds for us tonight.

redchief replied: I very hope no one finds themselves in the direct path of the storm. You guys in FL have your stuff together pretty good as emergency management and mitigation go, though. NJ OEM's take FL examples often. Doesn't take away the general apprehension you must all be feeling though. Good luck Florida!

A&A'smommy replied: yeah were getting rain and some wind from it!!

Here we go guys since they are predicting this season to be worse than last year

NikkiM replied: I'm in South- East Louisiana.. looks like we will clear this one.

redchief replied:
Really? Is that in Florida? The reason I ask is that I attended an OEM meeting the other day and they're predicting 16 named storms this year, well under last year's record.

A&A'smommy replied:
yeah hang on I will find what I read.. I could be wrong though but that is what I have been hearing

redchief replied:
Wouldn't be the first time we got bad info. out of State OEM. I look forward to whatever you can show me, and if you could post the source that would be helpful too. Thanks. smile.gif

It's also very possible I wasn't listening very well... Those meetings tend to be monotonous and protracted.

A&A'smommy replied: this is all I got the person who posted it on my local forum didn't leave a link

Monday, May 22, 2006; Posted: 2:05 p.m. EDT (18:05 GMT)

(CNN) -- The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be an active one, with up to 10 of the big storms, the National Hurricane Center announced Monday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that four to six of those hurricanes could reach Category 3 strength or higher -- with maximum sustained winds topping 111 mph.

NOAA predicts 13 to 16 named storms this season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. Eight to 10 of those storms are expected to reach hurricane strength.

A storm gets a name when it reaches tropical storm strength, with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph. It becomes a hurricane when its winds reach 74 mph.

NOAA administrator, retired Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, said that warmer sea surface temperatures, low wind shear and other wind conditions are favorable to hurricane development.

Wind shear, which is a change in air movement at different heights, can block the formation of hurricanes or make them weaker.

The Atlantic Basin has been in an active hurricane cycle that began in 1995, and nine of the 11 hurricane seasons since then have been above normal, according to NOAA. There were so many storms in 2005, that the National Weather Service had to use Greek letters when it used up its list of 21 names.

Four Category 3 storms -- Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma -- hit the U.S. in 2005.

Hurricane Katrina's strong winds and heavy waves devastated the Gulf Coast in late August.

The World Meteorological Organization retired five storm names from the 2005 season: Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan and Wilma.

Stan dumped torrential rains on Central America and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, killing as many as 2,000 people.

Names are retired out of sensitivity to the victims, and for historical, scientific and legal purposes.

and this is the other and the other didn't leave a link either sorry

Colorado State issues updated 2006 hurricane forecast






Today's 2006 hurricane forecast from the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University is unchanged from the forecast made in December. Today's report states that "information obtained through March 2006 continues to indicate that the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season."

The project team predicts that 17 named tropical storms and hurricanes will form this upcoming season, which lasts from June through December. In an average year, about 10 storms form in the Atlantic basin; in 2005's record-breaking season, 27 named storms (of which 15 were hurricanes) developed.

The team, led by scientists Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, predicts that nine of those 17 named storms will become hurricanes, five of them major, with at least Category 3 intensity (winds 111 of mph or more). On average, the Atlantic basin gets six hurricanes a year, with about two to three of them becoming major.

The Colorado State forecasters also report that there’s an 81 percent probability of at least one Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane making landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline this year.

A&A'smommy replied: I really don't understand why people don't leave links when they post stuff like that I will search the internet though

redchief replied:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2634.htm

The National Hurricane Center Prediction:
"For the 2006 north Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," added retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

I agree... Let me read it too!!! There you go. That's what I remembered from our briefing too. smile.gif

That's still a lot of storms.

A&A'smommy replied:
thats a the website I was looking for!! lol that is the one my husband always looks at

that is also what I thought that is a lot of storms.. but I really hope its not too bad

redchief replied: This is the Colorado State Univ. Tropical Meteorology Project site:

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/

The Nat. Hurricane Center and Colorado State don't always agree, but they're usually pretty close.

Bee_Kay replied: Living in northern Minnesota, I have no idea what it's like to be affected by a hurricane of any strength. I am wishing you all, in Florida a safe night!!!

(the most that happens here is snowstorms/blizzards which are mostly inconveniences like more shoveling, waiting for the plows to clear the roads and having to plug in our cars when it's VERY cold, ect)


So, hope you are all doing ok!! You're in my thoughts!! hug.gif hug.gif hug.gif

Bee_Kay replied: Thousands ordered to leave Florida's coast

HOLY CRAP you guys.... I was under the assumption that it wasn't that bad !?!?!?!

All of you in Florida, or in affected areas, take care over the next 24 hours!!! hug.gif

redchief replied:
I think I found the information that puts this season in the increased risk area, besides the fact that they are predicting anywhere from 13 - 17 named storms (the norm is 11). Colorado State is predicting "Landfall probabilities for the 2006 hurricane season are well above their long-period averages."

Here's the sub-site address for it, in case you want to try and understand the mathematical gobblediegook. I read it for about two minutes before becoming totally lost but that's why they get the big bucks. laugh.gif

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/foreca...june2006/#_ftn1

A&A'smommy replied: Thanks a LOT Ed I was starting to get confused lol but you help me understand I didn't know what the norm was.. the only thing I got was that they were suppose to be more bad ones that usual lol but anyway very interesting!!

redchief replied: We in NJ are especially concerned about the Atlantic Coast Strike Probability being 82%. The norm is a little over 50% likelyhood.

*shudder*

edited for the normal bad spelling.

C&K*s Mommie replied: Thanks Barb! hug.gif It is more of a precaution, more of a CYA (cover your a$$) than anything else. It sounds more ominous than it really is. And newscasters, and weather meteorologists tend to make it sound more scary than it needs to be. I think that is why we (Floridians) become so blahze when it comes to preparations, we have had our nerve overworked over the minor that for the major (Cat 3 or higher) we tend to be complacent. Normally, if a Cat 3 storm was headed anywhere near the keys or coastal areas, I would be shaking my head at those that stick behind to 'ride it out', but this, this should be nothing but a heavy rainfall.

Besides, the ground was so dry most of the water should absorb into the grass quickly. We have not had rain in what seems like forever (hence Cary's backyard pond being bone dry almost)... the ground may not be able to soak up the water that quickly but what it does manage to absorb & not flood over will be a blessing. smile.gif

C&K*s Mommie replied: Ed, I did not realize dunce.gif that as a fire chief that you take participate in OEM meetings. It makes sense now that I think about it, but it never donned on me before. blush.gif

MommyToAshley replied: hug.gif All our friends in the south, take cover and stay safe. hug.gif

redchief replied:
Not the most favorite of my activities, but yes, I sit in on OEM meetings. I also sit on the county CBRNE (aka Haz Mat) task force. County level groups tend to be frustrating... It takes so long to come to consensus on nearly everything and getting things done is worse.

ashtonsmama replied: Stay safe all of you down there. You're worrying me.

ohmy.gif

HUGS and many prayers for a safe night.

hug.gif

KUP.

kit_kats_mom replied:
I just looked at this link and I can see how those unfamiliar with Florida would find it alarming. However, those counties that were evacuated were sea level and many of them were flooded with the rains from Dennis (a tropical storm when it hit) last year. Since this is expected to be a rain event, that's probably why they were evacuated.

BAC'sMom replied:
Plus we are living in post Hurricane Katrina/Rita times so no Governer or Mayor wants to go through that "HEAT" again JMO.

My2Beauties replied: Hope everyone stays safe and this hurricane season is no where near as bad as last year's! hug.gif to everyone near the storm!

MomToJade&Jordan replied:
I was about to say there are a lot of towns and cities that are right on the water here in Florida. Plus even though it was just a TS is could still cause a strom surge. So yes any low lying areas will be evacuated.

Also they are predicting 13-17 named storms, but a storm gets a name when it hits TS status. 4-6 Major hurricanes would mean Cat 3 and above. They can really make it sound menacing. Still 13-17 storms would be less then last year. We went through all of the names and then some last season.



Ashlynn's Mommy replied: I hope everyone stays safe. hug.gif wavey.gif


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